• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
261 comments
673 forecasters

How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?

50,000result: Yes
25,000result: Yes
100,000Ambiguous
Authors:
casens
Opened:Apr 1, 2022
Closes:Dec 30, 2023
Resolved:Feb 26, 2024
Ukraine Conflict
Verity
Geopolitics
🏆 2022-2023 Leaderboard
New York Post logo
Russia’s running out of men and money to crack Ukraine’s ‘drone wall’
New York Post•Oct 20, 2025
CNN logo
Russian forces, aided by heavy aerial bombardments, edge forward in Ukraine
CNN•Oct 18, 2025
New York Post logo
Kremlin con: Russia luring young men into war in Ukraine with false promises of ‘quiet service’
New York Post•Oct 18, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

21 Mar 2027
(31 May 2026 - 09 May 2028)
21 Mar 2027
(31 May 2026 - 09 May 2028)
344 forecasters

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

2% chance
196

Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?

20% chance
2.1k
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature