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261 comments
673 forecasters

How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?

50,000result: Yes
25,000result: Yes
100,000Ambiguous
Authors:
casens
Opened:Apr 1, 2022
Closes:Dec 30, 2023
Resolved:Feb 26, 2024
Ukraine Conflict
Verity
Geopolitics
🏆 2022-2023 Leaderboard
Business Insider logo
North Korean soldiers are flying drones for Russia and directing strikes in Ukraine, Kyiv says
Business Insider•Oct 16, 2025
Al Jazeera logo
Russia advances in Ukraine as report claims 90,000 troops killed this year
Al Jazeera•Oct 9, 2025
CNN logo
Russian regions are massively boosting military sign-up bonuses to lure more people to fight in Ukraine
CNN•Oct 7, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

25 Jan 2027
(27 Apr 2026 - 15 Feb 2028)
25 Jan 2027
(27 Apr 2026 - 15 Feb 2028)
344 forecasters

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

2% chance
196

Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?

20% chance
2.1k
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