34
961 forecasters
Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?
15%chance
Top Key Factors
Russia plans a new offensive in the summer
Decreases Likelihood
Russia Rejects Ukraine Peace Proposals, Condemns ‘Axis of War’Newsweek•Jan 8, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
Putin has historically chosen escalation
Decreases Likelihood
Lower intensity increases settlement chances
Increases Likelihood
Russia Rejects Ukraine Peace Proposals, Condemns ‘Axis of War’Newsweek•Jan 8, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
Russia plans a new offensive in the summer
Decreases Likelihood
Putin has historically chosen escalation
Decreases Likelihood
Lower intensity increases settlement chances
Increases Likelihood