Forecast Group
Facebook Twitter
  • Embed
  • Copy Link
    •
  • Approval
  • Set Reminder
  • Share private question
  • Unsubscribe from question
    •

    Your submission is now in Draft mode.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    Submit Essay

    Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

    Pending

    This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

    Submitted

    This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

    Number of Russian Military Deaths by 2024

    Created by casens on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}
    Community prediction hidden {{qctrl.cpHiddenPeriodDurationString()}}, to be revealed on {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_period_ends_time | dateStr}} • The hidden period counts for {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_weight_coverage | percent}} of total coverage • {{qctrl.remainingCoverage() | percent}} coverage remaining
    Published by casens {{"onDate" | translate:({date: (qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr)})}}
    Trustworthy News Ukraine Conflict Improve the News

    Question

    The Russo-Ukraine conflict intensified with an invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Reports vary widely on the number of military deaths for both Russia and Ukraine, and accurate, up-to-date information is often difficult or impossible to obtain as fighting on the ground continues.

    How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?

    This question will resolve as the number of Russian soldiers or military personnel which have been killed while in service during the Russo-Ukrainian war, during the period from February 24, 2022 to January 1, 2024. The question will resolve as Yes if the number of deaths is greater than the following thresholds, and No if the number is fewer.

    "Military personnel" may include the Russian armed forces, national guard, the Wagner group, and Russian volunteer fighters.

    To determine resolution, Metaculus Admins will consider reports by the Ukrainian and Russian governments, other governments such as the US or the UN, and credible media reports and experts in the conflict. Resolution will be determined by information available by March 1, 2024 (or earlier, if information is sufficiently clear).

    Categories:
    Geopolitics – Armed Conflict
    Ukraine

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.