138 comments

180 forecasters

Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election?

Liz Trussresult: Yes

Steve Bakerresult: No

Suella Bravermanresult: No

Liz Truss

Steve Baker

Suella Braverman

Authors:

Opened:

Jun 14, 2022

Closes:

Sep 5, 2022

Resolved:

Sep 5, 2022

🏆 2022 Leaderboard

Richard Tice confirms Reform abandoning firm commitment to most of the £90bn tax cuts in its 2024 manifesto – UK politics live

Guardian•Oct 13, 2025

The real war is to come for the Tories

Spectator (UK)•Oct 9, 2025

Badenoch sets out her vision to redefine Tory party – but few are listening

Guardian•Oct 9, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch