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China Controls Taiwan after Invasion

Question

From CNN,

If China tries to take Taiwan, are the United States and its allies able to stop it? [The] alarming answer is: Quite possibly not. Analysts say China has more troops, more missiles and more ships than Taiwan or its possible supporters, like the US or Japan, could bring to a fight. That means that if China is absolutely determined to take the island it probably can.

But there's a caveat; while China could likely prevail, any victory would come at an extremely bloody price for both Beijing and its adversaries.

Many analysts say an invasion of Taiwan would be more dangerous and complex than the Allied D-Day landings in France in World War II. US government documents put the number of killed, injured and missing from both sides during the almost three-month-long Normandy campaign at almost half a million troops.

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years?

This question will only resolve as either Yes or No if China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2035. If this does not occur, this question will resolve as Ambiguous.

This question will resolve as Yes if, at any point within 3 years after the beginning of the invasion, the entire main island of Taiwan is under de facto control of the People's Republic of China.

For the purposes of this question, China will be considered to "launch a full-scale invasion" if the event is described as such by both The New York Times and the Associated Press, or if at least 1,000 Chinese Armed Forces are deployed to put the main island of Taiwan under the control of the People's Republic of China. In other words, invasion will be defined the same as in this question.

For this question, "de facto" control indicates that a government has the ability to freely deploy armed forces or police in a given region and has the ability to pass some laws governing that region. The final determination of who has "de facto" control will be at the sole discretion of Metaculus Admins.

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