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374 comments
858 forecasters

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

2025result: No
20262%
202816%
Authors:
casens
Opened:May 6, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2035
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Geopolitics
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Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years?

2025
No
2030
40%
2035
70%
86 forecasters

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

14% chance
58

Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?

3% chance
38
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