The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, officially claims to be the sole legitimate government of the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. Currently, the Republic of China controls the islands. The two states remain in a state of tension following the Chinese Civil War. Though there has not been active conflict since 1979, the two parties have not agreed to an armistice or peace treaty.
In May 2020, PRC General Li Zuocheng said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.”
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
The sub-questions below will resolve as Yes if, at any point between January 1, 2022 to January 1 of the year in question, one or both of these two conditions are true:
The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.
At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule.