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378
comments
883
forecasters
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
2025
result:
No
2026
0.3%
2028
12%
2 others
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Predict
Top Key Factors
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New Chinese landing barges
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
15 votes
CCP chairman Xi Jin Ping's reelection
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
14 votes
Taiwanese domestic politics
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
13 votes
Comments
Timeline
In the News
Key Factors
Question Info
Resolution Criteria
Key Factors
Background Info
Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
2026
2035
2028
Others (2)
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embed
Authors:
casens
Opened:
May 6, 2022
Closes:
Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2035
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Geopolitics
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Oct 27, 2025
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