12 comments
34 forecasters
If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what proportion of those detonations will be countervalue?
Pakistan0.329
China0.125
India0.0813
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2050
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?
0.249%
(0.0632 - 0.831)
0.249%
(0.0632 - 0.831)
33 forecasters
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?
0.0269%
(0.00752 - 0.0929)
0.0269%
(0.00752 - 0.0929)
8 forecasters
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?
307 forecasters