Question
When will an ML model achieve 90% of human-crowd performance on Autocast?
Total Forecasters31
Community Prediction
09 Mar 2027
(07 Feb 2025 - 15 Feb 2030)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 07 Feb 2025 | — |
| median | 09 Mar 2027 | — |
| upper 75% | 15 Feb 2030 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jun 2032 | 7.1% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jul 1, 2022
Closes:Feb 1, 2032
Scheduled resolution:Feb 2, 2032
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 1, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Jul 1, 2022
Closes:Feb 1, 2032
Scheduled resolution:Feb 2, 2032
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 1, 2022