5 comments
31 forecasters
When will an ML model achieve 90% of human-crowd performance on Autocast?
Current estimate
03 Feb 2027
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Authors:
Opened:Jul 1, 2022
Closes:Feb 1, 2032
Scheduled resolution:Feb 2, 2032
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 1, 2022
When will a language model be developed that, when tested, yields approximately human-level output?
05 Jun 2024
(05 May 2023 - 10 Feb 2027)
05 Jun 2024
(05 May 2023 - 10 Feb 2027)
36 forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Nov 2030
(27 Jul 2026 - Mar 2040)
Nov 2030
(27 Jul 2026 - Mar 2040)
181 forecasters
What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?
99.1%
(96.3 - 99.7)
99.1%
(96.3 - 99.7)
22 forecasters