Question
When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?
Total Forecasters174
Community Prediction
10 Mar 2029
(12 Aug 2026 - Sep 2033)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 12 Aug 2026 | — |
| median | 10 Mar 2029 | — |
| upper 75% | Sep 2033 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2100 | 1.3% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jul 19, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 20, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Jul 19, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 20, 2022