69 comments
174 forecasters
When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?
Current estimate
11 Apr 2029
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Authors:
Opened:Jul 19, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 20, 2022
When will an AI pass the laugh test?
16 Nov 2025
(22 Oct 2024 - 03 Aug 2028)
16 Nov 2025
(22 Oct 2024 - 03 Aug 2028)
95 forecasters
How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?
1.26 years
(1.06 - 2.15)
1.26 years
(1.06 - 2.15)
41 forecasters
Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?
85% chance
524