Question

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

Total Forecasters174
Community Prediction
08 Mar 2029
(18 Aug 2026 - Aug 2033)

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CDF

QuartilescommunityMy Prediction
lower 25%18 Aug 2026
median08 Mar 2029
upper 75%Aug 2033
Upper bound
>21001.3%
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Opened:Jul 19, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 20, 2022