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How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?

Given the public disagreement of expert opinion on AI timelines, seen for example here, there is a need to establish a credible track-record of accurate forecasting in the lead-up to the development of AGI.

Oren Etzioni, head of the Allen AI institute, recently published an article on identifying 'canaries' which will presage the imminent development of AGI. He proposes that limited versions of the Turing Test could present a natural canary.

This question's resolution will be determined by the number of years between the positive resolution of two other metaculus questions: the silver Turing Test prediction and AGI prediction.

If the silver Turing test has not been passed by 2026 (the date limit set by the question), I will post a new version of that question using the prediction time series format and resolving 2075. Then the resolution of this question will depend on the resolution of the new silver Turing test question.

Categories: Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning

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