Question
When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?
Total Forecasters173
Community Prediction
04 Mar 2029
(30 Aug 2026 - Jul 2033)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 30 Aug 2026 | — |
| median | 04 Mar 2029 | — |
| upper 75% | Jul 2033 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2100 | 1.3% | — |
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Jul 19, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 20, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Jul 19, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 20, 2022