26 comments
196 forecasters
Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Sep 26, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2022
Resolved:Jan 1, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 26, 2022
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Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?
0.1% chance
188
Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?
3% chance
63
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
23 forecasters