Question

Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?

Resolved:No

26 comments26

Total Forecasters196

Community Prediction

(1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

98.5

Community Peer Score

0.8

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Sep 26, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 26, 2022

Geopolitics

2022 Leaderboard

Yes, former Russian president said 'number of countries' ready to supply Iran with nuclear warheads

Snopes•Jun 24, 2025

Putin Ally Doubles Down on Iran Nuclear Weapons Warning After Trump Reacts

Newsweek•Jun 24, 2025

Ex-Russian prez backs off threat to give Iran nukes after Trump flexes ‘most powerful and lethal weapons ever built’

New York Post•Jun 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Nov 2035

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Sep 26, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 26, 2022

Geopolitics

2022 Leaderboard

Yes, former Russian president said 'number of countries' ready to supply Iran with nuclear warheads

Snopes•Jun 24, 2025

Putin Ally Doubles Down on Iran Nuclear Weapons Warning After Trump Reacts

Newsweek•Jun 24, 2025

Ex-Russian prez backs off threat to give Iran nukes after Trump flexes ‘most powerful and lethal weapons ever built’

New York Post•Jun 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Nov 2035

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%