🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years?

8
10
78 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Yearresolution
Year25thmedian75th

PDF

CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
<5k
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>20k
...
...
...
...
...
0.4%
9.138k
10.11k
11.31k
0.7%

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 46
Authors:
casens
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Forecasting Our World in Data
Geopolitics
Technology
2021-2025 Leaderboard
2022-2023 Leaderboard
Our World in Data
Soviet Union
Barack Obama
Physics
Ronald Reagan
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
Military science
Nuclear weapon

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