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Will the UK actually leave the EU?
In June 2016, the people of the UK voted narrowly in favour of leaving the European Union. Things have not gone altogether smoothly since then. Negotiations between the UK and the EU have been acrimonious and a "no-deal" exit (whose economic consequences would be disagreeable) seems a real possibility; in July 2018 two cabinet ministers resigned from the government over disagreements about how to handle Brexit, and the government is widely perceived as unstable; the people of the UK remain deeply divided over whether Brexit was ever a good idea, whether it is a good idea now, and what it should look like if so.
The UK is due to leave the EU in March of 2019. This date could be delayed, if all the EU member countries agree. The UK's exit could probably be abandoned, if the government so chose. This question asks whether the UK will leave on something like the original timescale.
Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020?
This question will resolve when any of the following conditions occurs; the first to occur determines the resolution:
- The UK is no longer a member of the EU. (Positive resolution.)
- 2020-07-01 is reached. (Negative resolution.)
- There is no longer a nation called the United Kingdom. (Ambiguous resolution.)
- There is no longer an international organization called the European Union. (Ambiguous resolution.)
A relevant other question is Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019? but these resolve differently if there is a short delay, or (as I interpret the other question) if there is a "no-deal" Brexit.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.