composing definitive insights composing predictive contingencies mapping calibrated contingencies aggregating probable contingencies composing quantitative futures mapping the future crowdsourcing intelligent futures formulating quantitative insights predicting critical contingencies aggregating probable insights generating quantitative estimations mapping predictive contingencies exploring calibrated estimations mapping definitive contingencies


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?

Medical testing and devices company Theranos has recently come into controversy after a Wall Street Journal article asserted that it has over-promised and under-delivered on its testing suite.

As summarized by The Washington Post,

Theranos, once valued at $9 billion based on its immense promise to make blood testing cheaper and more efficient, has been embroiled in questions about its technology and regulatory strategy for months. The scrutiny was sparked by a Wall Street Journal investigation that revealed that the intensely secret company's much-touted fingerprick blood tests were barely being used and employees had raised questions about the accuracy of its tests.

In response, Theranos itself claims:

Our proprietary devices are making it possible to run finger-stick samples for tests that could never be run on finger-stick before. We began using our proprietary devices in our lab at the launch of our retail operations. And we initiated filings with FDA two years ago—by choice, not necessity—because we are seeking to create a new model for laboratory testing standards, and have championed FDA oversight ever since. It is the right thing, which is also the hard thing. [...]

Capabilities of Theranos' devices: The article implies that Theranos' proprietary devices were only capable of running a limited number of tests. First, "Edison" is only one of many proprietary devices used as part of Theranos proprietary technologies. In total, Theranos research and development has developed hundreds of tests for finger-stick samples using our proprietary devices. [...]

Theranos' filings with FDA show the versatility of Theranos devices, and our confidence in the results of our tests: Theranos has publicly advocated for FDA regulation of laboratory-developed tests (LDTs), and over 120 of the tests developed for use on our devices used as part of Theranos proprietary technologies have been submitted in pre-submissions to FDA.

Will Theranos succeed in getting 100 or more tests approved by the end of 2018?

Question will be resolved per announcement by Theranos or in a major media article.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.