Your submission is now a Draft.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

You have been invited to co-author this question.

When it is ready, the author will submit it for review by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!


This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators.

We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.

If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a comment.

You have been invited to co-author this question.

It now needs to be approved by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!


{{qctrl.question.predictionCount() | abbrNumber}} predictions
{{"myPredictionLabel" | translate}}:  
{{ qctrl.question.resolutionString() }}
{{qctrl.question.predictionCount() | abbrNumber}} predictions
My score: {{qctrl.question.player_log_score | logScorePrecision}}
Created by: casens and
co-authors , {{coauthor.username}}
Flourishing Futures Red Lines in Ukraine

Make a Prediction


Related question on Metaculus:

In May 2022, Forbes journalist Michael Peck wrote, "So far, there are no public indications that Ukraine is contemplating sending ground troops into Russia." Forbes quoted retired Australian general Mick Ryan saying, “Militarily, there is little utility in going into Russian territory. It is a massive country with a vast network of military infrastructure. A limited incursion would have almost no military impact.”

Several incidents have been reported in Western Russia after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine began. Russia has attributed some of these incidents to Ukrainian perpertrators, but as of October 20, 2022, Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for any of the events.