1 comment
32 forecasters
Will the next "Great Power" war be a nuclear war?
23%chance
Annulled
The community gave this a 23% chance, and it resolved Annulled.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Sep 28, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Resolved:Sep 9, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 30, 2023
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
When will be the next war between "great powers" (defined using GDP, population, or permanent membership on UN Security Council)?
Apr 2045
(Jul 2035 - Dec 2069)
Apr 2045
(Jul 2035 - Dec 2069)
19 forecasters
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?
25% chance
499
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?
29% chance
282