12 comments
39 forecasters
Before 2023, will FTX.US default or suspend payment to at least one FTX.US user?
99%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 99% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Nov 10, 2022
Closes:Dec 27, 2022
Resolved:Nov 13, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 11, 2022
How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2026?
300 months
(297 - 304)
300 months
(297 - 304)
135 forecasters
How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2030?
300 months
(294 - 305)
300 months
(294 - 305)
46 forecasters
Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026?
115 forecasters