Question

Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?

Resolved:No

16 comments16

Total Forecasters76

Community Prediction

40%

(30% - 55%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 40%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

1.5

Community Peer Score

19.0

Authors:

AdamK

Opened:

Sep 26, 2018

Closes:

Nov 11, 2018

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 26, 2018

Sports & Entertainment

2016-2025 Leaderboard

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Guardian•Jun 25, 2025

What it would take for Faith Kipyegon to become the first female sub four-minute miler

New York Times•Jun 25, 2025

It's a barrier women have never broken. Can Faith Kipyegon make mile history?

NBC•Jun 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a runner break the 2-hour mark in a competitive marathon?

25 Sep 2027

What will be the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records?

7146

When will the women's world record for a competitive marathon reach below 2 hours?

>Jan 2061

Authors:

AdamK

Opened:

Sep 26, 2018

Closes:

Nov 11, 2018

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 26, 2018

Sports & Entertainment

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Nike PR stunt or giant leap forward? Faith Kipyegon aims to make history

Guardian•Jun 25, 2025

What it would take for Faith Kipyegon to become the first female sub four-minute miler

New York Times•Jun 25, 2025

It's a barrier women have never broken. Can Faith Kipyegon make mile history?

NBC•Jun 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a runner break the 2-hour mark in a competitive marathon?

25 Sep 2027

What will be the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records?

7146

When will the women's world record for a competitive marathon reach below 2 hours?

>Jan 2061