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Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?

Even though the Google Lunar X Prize ended without a winner, many of the competitors continue in their attempts to reach the moon. One of them is SpaceIL, a nonprofit organization in Israel. They plan to launch on a Falcon 9 in December, as a secondary payload, and reach the Moon in February 2019.

According to Business Insider:

SpaceIL, a nonprofit organization founded by Israeli billionaire Morris Kahn, is on track to pull off the first commercial lunar landing early next year. This would make Israel the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the moon; only the US, Russia, and China have landed robots there. (Japan, India, and Europe have crashed probes into the lunar surface, though.)

A close competitor is India's Chandrayaan-2, the subject of another Metaculus question.

Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon?

Resolution is positive if SpaceIL (or, much less likely, another Israeli effort) is the next to achieve a gentle landing of a spacecraft on the Moon; the spacecraft must be intact after landing, but no conditions are placed on its operation.


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