composing probable estimations forecasting intelligent estimations computing precise insights forecasting calibrated insights computing probable forecasts mapping the future delivering precise estimations assembling probable estimations assembling intelligent understanding generating critical contingencies predicting accurate estimations modeling intelligent understanding generating intelligent predictions exploring accurate wisdom

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?


This is the third in a three-part series of questions suggested by the Qualia Research Institute, with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting QualiaComputing.com


There is no cure for Alzheimer’s disease, and to the extent that current medications can treat it, their effects on cognitive decline are more akin to hurdles than roadblocks. One of the most common treatments for Alzheimer’s is Memantine, which “is prescribed to improve memory, attention, reason, language and the ability to perform simple tasks.” It is considered to have a “small” positive effect on moderate to severe AD cases, and no significant improvement for patients in early stages of the disease.

Piracetam is one of the most widely used types of Nootropic, a class of substance generally characterized by its purported effects on cognition and mood. In the US, it is recreationally used in a manner similar to a stimulant such as Adderall, with reported effects ranging from improved verbosity to higher productivity to a decrease in depressive symptoms. None of these, nor any other use of Piracetam is approved by the FDA, and research of the drug on diagnosed cases of AD or dementia have been discouragingly inconclusive at best and unilaterally damning at worst. On the other hand, a lot of guys on Reddit think it makes them talk more.

(A minority of users of Piracetam report reductions in mood, and this question is not in any way meant as an endorsement of this or any other nootropic.)

By 2021, will a published paper or pre-print conclude that Piracetam (or other racetams such as Phenylpiracetam) is more effective than Memantine at slowing cognitive decline, restoring function, or significantly alleviating symptoms of the disease?

The team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 90% likely the question will resolve positive.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.