33 comments
227 forecasters
In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 22, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 12, 2023
If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?
21.9% chance
20
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?
0.1% chance
174
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
23 forecasters