Question

In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?

Resolved:No

33 comments33

Total Forecasters227

Community Prediction

(0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

7.8

Community Baseline Score

53.0

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Dec 22, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 12, 2023

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Geopolitics

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