94 comments
535 forecasters
Will AI progress surprise us by predictions of AGI jumping sharply?
80%chance
The community sees this as a toss-up.
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 28, 2018
Closes:Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:Dec 30, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 28, 2018
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
30.4 months
(8.89 - 115)
30.4 months
(8.89 - 115)
329 forecasters
Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?
43% chance
92
Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?
57% chance
222