Question

In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?

Resolved:No

6 comments6

Total Forecasters124

Community Prediction

0.5%

(0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

82.9

Community Peer Score

12.2

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Dec 22, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 12, 2023

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

Geopolitics

Politics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Will Khamenei accept that its over?

Spectator (UK)•Jun 24, 2025

After three decades in power, Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is quietly orchestrating a generational transition, naming three senior clerics as possible successors amid heightened assassination threats and escalating conflict with Israel...

•Jun 22, 2025

Iran's Khamenei makes preparations for a successor, NY Times reports

•Jun 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?

35%

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

20%

When will Iran cease to be an Islamic Republic?

May 2038