crowdsourcing probable understanding delivering contingent wisdom exploring accurate insights exploring definitive estimations computing predictive forecasts mapping the future forecasting probable understanding computing probable futures calculating calibrated understanding composing probable contingencies assembling quantitative insights assembling intelligent contingencies assembling calibrated estimations aggregating intelligent insights

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will NASA's K2 Mission detect a potentially habitable planet in 2015?

NASA’s Kepler Mission discovered thousands of planets, but the mission ended in May 2013, when a second of the spacecraft’s four reaction wheels failed.

The K2 Mission has repurposed the Kepler spacecraft to perform successive 80-day photometric observations of selected star fields in Earth’s ecliptic plane. For bright stars, K2’s precision limits are similar to those of the original Kepler Mission. The first planet detection from the K2 Mission has recently been published.

Here’s the question:

Will a peer-reviewed publication based on K2 photometry announcing the discovery of a potentially habitable planet appear prior to January 1, 2016?

Here are some details:

For purposes of evaluation, a habitable planet is one that has a value greater than USD 1,000,000, as defined by the habitable planet valuation formula.

In the above equation, V is the V-band apparent magnitude of the host star. The planetary effective temperature is calculated using (following Batalha et al, we use f=1 and A=0.3), and the planetary mass is estimated using

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.