22 comments
204 forecasters
Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?
0.1%chance
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
Opened:Dec 15, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 30, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 3, 2023
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What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?
2.17 people
(0.811 - 4.9)
2.17 people
(0.811 - 4.9)
97 forecasters
When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?
Apr 2041
(Aug 2036 - Mar 2046)
Apr 2041
(Aug 2036 - Mar 2046)
69 forecasters
By what year will there be a permanently inhabited lunar base with at least five crew members, operational for six consecutive months?
Apr 2038
(Feb 2033 - Aug 2046)
Apr 2038
(Feb 2033 - Aug 2046)
11 forecasters