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Will Texas elect a Democratic senator in 2018?

Expanding on the aggregate question How many US Senate seats will Democrats control after 2018 midterm elections?, this focuses on one US Senate race that has become unusually close:

Texas last elected a Democratic senator when Lloyd Bentsen was reelected in 1988; Ted Cruz was elected in 2012 by 16 points. However, several polls that have shown the Democrat challenger Beto O'Rourke trailing by a few percentage points have caused RealClearPolitics to declare the race a Tossup (other forecasters remain on Lean or Likely Republican). As yet, no polls have shown Ted Cruz behind.

FiveThirtyEight calculated that August polls (in all states) have predicted the final result with an 8 point margin of error on average (and as much as 14 points), leaving a wide range of possible outcomes.

This question asks: Will Texas elect a Democratic senator in 2018?


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