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81 comments
344 forecasters

In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?

1%chance
1%chance
ResolvedNo
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
casens
Opened:Dec 22, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 12, 2023
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SpaceX Targets an Orbital Starship Flight With a Next-Gen Vehicle in 2026
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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?

01 Dec 2027
(06 Nov 2026 - 21 Mar 2029)
01 Dec 2027
(06 Nov 2026 - 21 Mar 2029)
201 forecasters

Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?

65% chance
46

How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?

3
51.7%
2
36.9%
4
10.1%
3 others
46 forecasters
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