81 comments
344 forecasters
In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 22, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 12, 2023
When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?
01 Dec 2027
(06 Nov 2026 - 21 Mar 2029)
01 Dec 2027
(06 Nov 2026 - 21 Mar 2029)
201 forecasters
Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?
65% chance
46
How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?
46 forecasters