344 forecasters

In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?

1%chance

1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Dec 22, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolved:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 12, 2023

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

Economy & Business

🏆 2022-2023 Leaderboard

SpaceX’s Second-Gen Starship Signs Off With a Near-Perfect Test Flight

Wired•Oct 15, 2025

When is the next Starship launch? SpaceX working on Version 3 that could reach orbit

USA Today•Oct 15, 2025

Elon Musk’s SpaceX Achieves Successful Starship Test Flight, Paving the Way for Future Missions

Breitbart•Oct 14, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?

(08 Dec 2026 - 12 May 2029)

(08 Dec 2026 - 12 May 2029)

202 forecasters

Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?

How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?