Question
Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?
Total Forecasters7
Community Prediction
2.3×10²⁹ FLOP
(1.3×10²⁸ FLOP - 1.7×10³¹ FLOP)
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CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <1×10²⁵ | 2.8% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 1.3×10²⁸ | — |
| median | 2.3×10²⁹ | — |
| upper 75% | 1.7×10³¹ | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >1×10⁵⁰ | 0.2% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 27, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 29, 2023
Authors:
Opened:Jan 27, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 29, 2023