14 comments
35 forecasters
Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?
35.1%chance
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Feb 12, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2069
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2071
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 14, 2023
Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?
3% chance
139
Will state-based conflict between Morocco and Algeria cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?
33% chance
19
Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?
26% chance
26