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Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?

In April 2018 the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) reported that the incarcerated US population has continued to decrease. This population includes offenders under the jurisdiction of state or federal prisons or held in local jails. For 2016, the incarceration rate for all ages is 670 out of 100,000 US residents. (If you are interested in a world-wide comparison please see the World Prison Brief).

Currently the incarceration rate is at its lowest since 1993 and has been decreasing since reaching a peak in 2009. Incarceration Rate, 1980-2016

Will the rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022 (all ages)? Note that the last time the rate was this low was in 1991.

Question resolves as affirmative if the incarceration rate, as reported by the BJS, drops below 500 per 100,000 for at least one year within 2019-2022.


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