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Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?
Warning: This is one of those Metaculus questions with no points actually on the line. It's not going to resolve.
What is the ultimate fate of the "stuff" that makes us up? It's mostly protons, which (fortunately) are remarkably durable.
After we as individuals die, the material that comprises our bodies at the time of death will mostly likely get recycled into Earth's biosphere. (This isn't 100% guaranteed--some lucky few of us may get to die on Mars.) And not ALL of the protons in our bodies will remain on Earth. By chance, some will escape into space and roam the void.
But what's the long long term fate of the protons of Earth? Perhaps the Earth will be swallowed by the sun in a few billion years. Or maybe not. But on much longer time scales, many interesting things can happen to our protons:
We could end up sucked into the black hole at the center of our galaxy if the Andromeda-Milky Way galactic merger happens just so. Or another black hole could happen along.
A vacuum state change or other weird physics could end the universe as we know it.
Protons might not actually decay, and just hang around forever.
What do you think will happen to our remnants in super-deep time?
Question "resolves" positive if most of Earth's protons eventually decay into lighter particles; resolves negative if the majority of Earth's protons have a different fate (are processed into net zero-baryon number black hole emissions, destroyed in a phase transition, sit around forever, recast into other particles by superintelligent beings, disappear when the simulation's plug is pulled, or whatever.)
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.