Question
What credence will the US government assign to existential risk from AI in the next 30 years before 2025?
Resolved:AmbiguousTotal Forecasters22
Community Prediction
0.00655
(0.0017 - 0.0229)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <1×10⁻⁵ | 1.0% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 0.001702 | — |
| median | 0.006547 | — |
| upper 75% | 0.02287 | — |
What was the final result?Ambiguous
Authors:
Opened:Mar 15, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 17, 2023
Authors:
Opened:Mar 15, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 17, 2023