Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Will the Ocean Cleanup project *fail* to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?
CREATE A COASTLINE
The system consists of a 600-meter-long floater that sits at the surface of the water and a tapered 3-meter-deep skirt attached below. The floater provides buoyancy to the system and prevents plastic from flowing over it, while the skirt stops debris from escaping underneath.
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF NATURAL OCEANIC FORCES
Both the plastic and system are being carried by the current. However, wind and waves propel only the system, as the floater sits just above the water surface, while the plastic is primarily just beneath it. The system thus moves faster than the plastic, allowing the plastic to be captured.
CONCENTRATE THE PLASTIC AND TAKE IT OUT
Natural forces move the system faster than the plastic which allows the plastic to be captured in the center of the system. The Ocean Cleanup Technology
Slat's system is currently en route to the Great Pacific Garbage Patch where it will face the most rigorous test thus far. The next milestone for The Ocean Cleanup is to have 60 systems up and running by 2021. Positive resolution is if they fail to meet their goal.
Resolution: Question resolves as affirmative if a credible news agency reports that The Ocean Cleanup failed to have 60 systems up and running by January 1, 2021, or if no information indicating they reached their goal arrives by 1/1/2021.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.