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Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?
Following the Hessian State Election in 2018, and the huge losses of the federal coalition parties SPD and CDU represented therein, Chancellor Angela Merkel announced she would not seek re-election as German Chancellor in 2021, nor for head of party later this year.
The latter is particularly interesting since Merkel herself always insisted on the Chancellor also holding the office of respective party chairman, a practise she criticised her predecessor, Gerhard Schröder, for abandoning in light of rising criticism regarding his reform plans.
Her current prospective successors as chairmen of the CDU are:
- Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the unofficial favourite,
- Friedrich Merz, who had left politics a decade ago, and
- Jens Spahn, the current Minister of Health.
There are a few possibilities open right now; Merkel may choose to leave office prematurely for a successor to gain valuable experience as a chancellor. But it is doubtful if the junior partner in the coalition, the SPD, would support such a move, preferring new elections instead. Similarly the new chairman may obstruct Merkel in parliament to raise their profile for the next federal elections, possibly to the extent of triggering premature federal elections.
Thus we ask: Will there be Federal Elections held in Germany prior to the earliest date slated for the next elections?
Resolves positive if elections are held before 29 August 2021; resolves negative if elections are held between 29 August and 24 October 2021 (inclusive); resolves ambiguous for everything else.
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