crowdsourcing contingent insights mapping probable insights delivering contingent contingencies mapping quantitative futures aggregating precise contingencies mapping the future generating probable predictions mapping intelligent insights mapping predictive contingencies crowdsourcing critical forecasts calculating critical estimations aggregating accurate understanding generating intelligent estimations mapping accurate contingencies

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?

The U.S. nuclear weapons policy under the Obama administration includes large-scale modernization of the nuclear triad, with projections nearing $1 Trillion in spending over the next 30 years. ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles) in particular are slated for renovation; the LGM-30 Minuteman III has been in service since 1970 and planned to remain in operation only until 2030. Although the stockpile of Minuteman III missiles has been upgraded over the years, the spending plan incorporates a budget for a new line of ICBMs, which may be mobile and may even feature a new basing option.

The only live ICBMs are currently based in silos; more exotic basing options were outlined in this Cold War era 1980 paper, including mobile options that use rail systems that constantly shuffle ICBM positions as a way of increasing survivability.

Will one of the top 25 news outlets by media traffic publish a story by June 1st, 2019 reporting that the Minuteman III ICBMs will be replaced with a new model of ICBM that is either (a) mobilized or (b) not silo-based?

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.