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Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?
A key observable metric and important effect of global climate change is the extent of the Arctic ice sheet, which varies seasonally but also has a significant downward secular trend, presumably tied to global temperature increase.
The total extent of the sheet as a function of time is tracked in detail via a combination of satellite data and can be seen as an image as a function of time. Additional graphs and data can be found on the Arctic Data archive System website.
Arctic sea ice shrank to its smallest recorded extent in September of 2012. Thankfully, ice sheet coverage has not yet shrunk to an area smaller than that of 2012. See here and here for the previous Metaculus questions where we asked about the possibility for 2016 and 2017 to reach record low.
Will the extent of the Arctic ice sheet reach its lowest yet recorded value in 2019?
The resolution will be positive if the 2019 curve dips below the lowest point on the 2012 curve as found on the Arctic Data archive System website.
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.