Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?
In September 2015, 193 world leaders adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and called for a “data revolution” to enhance accountability in measuring the progress towards their fulfilment. The SDGs have 17 goals of which the first is “To end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”.
Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices. Currently, around 630M people (roughly 8%) live in extreme poverty worldwide. According to World Bank Data, extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, there is evidence that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.
A 2018 study by Cuaresma et al. on the poverty paths of developing countries projects worldwide poverty rates ranging from 4.5% (around 375 million persons) to almost 6% (over 500 million persons) in 2030.
Will we see fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?
This question resolves positively if there are fewer than 375M in extreme poverty in any year up to (and including) 2030. For this question we will refer to the data by the World Bank, and if this is unavailable, some other database listed on the data sources page.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.