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Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030

Question

In September 2015, 193 world leaders adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and called for a “data revolution” to enhance accountability in measuring the progress towards their fulfilment. The SDGs have 17 goals of which the first is “To end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”.

Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices. Currently, around 630M people (roughly 8%) live in extreme poverty worldwide. According to World Bank Data, extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, there is evidence that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.

A 2018 study by Cuaresma et al. on the poverty paths of developing countries projects worldwide poverty rates ranging from 4.5% (around 375 million persons) to almost 6% (over 500 million persons) in 2030.

Will we see fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?

This question resolves positively if there are fewer than 375M in extreme poverty in any year up to (and including) 2030. For this question we will refer to the data by the World Bank, and if this is unavailable, some other database listed on the data sources page.

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