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When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation?
This year, just weeks after globe-conquering tech giant Apple reached its $1 trillion value milestone, Amazon has joined them in crossing the threshold (at some surprise to Metaculus forecasters).
Apple was valued at around $100 billion in mid 2007, and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. Amazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion in just over 6 years.
To put the $10 trillion figure in some perspective, the United States currently (Q2, 2018) has a GDP of $20 trillion at current prices.
When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation in today's prices?
This resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion dollars adjusted to 2018 prices. The question will refer to Yahoo Finance's data, or any other reputable financial data service.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
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