composing critical predictions delivering accurate futures predicting precise futures predicting probable insights generating definitive wisdom mapping the future modeling intelligent futures forecasting quantitative understanding generating accurate estimations computing probable wisdom calculating intelligent insights formulating definitive forecasts delivering accurate forecasts forecasting quantitative predictions

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will Facebook's share price be lower in 3 months than it is today?

Facebook has had mixed news over the past year.

On the plus side, it's still the 3rd most visited site globally, and its founder Mark Zuckerberg spent some of this year as the 3rd richest person on the planet. On the other hand, it announced its first-ever decrease in monthly active users, which caused its stock to plummet by nearly 25% in a single day; scandals about its political influence in the UK and the US still smoulder; and the aforementioned plunge was chased by over 4 months of steady ebbing in its share price that continues to the present day.

Will Facebook's fortunes further founder? Or will the future find fairer fates?

This question asks the following:

Will the closing price of Facebook's shares on March 4th 2019 be lower than the closing price on December 3rd 2018?

The question resolution will be decided according to the "close" column on Yahoo's tracker for Facebook shares, which gives the close price on December 3rd 2018 as 141.09 USD. The question will close roughly halfway between the start and resolve dates.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.