composing critical predictions delivering accurate futures predicting precise futures predicting probable insights generating definitive wisdom mapping the future modeling intelligent futures forecasting quantitative understanding generating accurate estimations computing probable wisdom calculating intelligent insights formulating definitive forecasts delivering accurate forecasts forecasting quantitative predictions

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

When will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?

Between 1969 and 1972, twelve American men walked on the moon. Since then, no manned spacecraft has ever landed on any astronomical body except the Earth itself.

There are various plans to send humans to the moon and to Mars - but when will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?

This question resolves positively when any spacecraft containing living humans comes into physical contact with any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars according to the agency, corporation, or other body primarily responsible for the mission.

The landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. Making physical contact with other bodies such as asteroids, comets, or 'minor planets' not considered 'dwarf planets' does not count.

Resolves ambiguously if it cannot be conclusively determined whether or not any members of the crew are alive at the moment the spacecraft makes contact with the surface of the astronomical body.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.