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When will the world have reached peak Facebook?

Facebook is without a doubt the biggest social network ever. Its active user count has grown by more than 30 million per quarter since Q3 2008, and they've reached more than 2 billion people by now.

While there is little doubt there are sock-puppets among the active users, in some parts of the world Facebook is the means to interact with each other. There are regions where Facebook has usurped the internet on which it runs to such a degree that if an organisation hasn't got a Facebook page, they might as well not have an internet presence at all.

But while Facebook keeps pushing for total market saturation, there are scant markets yet unexplored. Add to that the decline in use among certain demographics and one has to ask:

When will the world have reached peak Facebook?

For the purposes of this question we’ll look at the Monthly Active Users (MAU) Facebook usually reports with their quarterly earnings to determine stagnation. This question resolves positive if over the course of a year (4 quarters) Facebook reports an increase of 8 million MAU or less. If FB stops reporting MAU, or changes the methodology with which they determine these, the question will resolve ambiguously.

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Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.