Question
When will a runner break the 2-hour mark in a competitive marathon?
Total Forecasters16
Community Prediction
30 Sep 2027
(12 Mar 2026 - Apr 2031)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 12 Mar 2026 | — |
| median | 30 Sep 2027 | — |
| upper 75% | Apr 2031 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jan 2060 | 1.0% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:May 2, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2059
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2060
Spot Scoring Time:May 4, 2023
Authors:
Opened:May 2, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2059
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2060
Spot Scoring Time:May 4, 2023