Question
When will a runner break the 2-hour mark in a competitive marathon?
Total Forecasters15
Community Prediction
25 Sep 2027
(06 Jan 2026 - Mar 2032)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 06 Jan 2026 | — |
| median | 25 Sep 2027 | — |
| upper 75% | Mar 2032 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jan 2060 | 1.0% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:May 2, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2059
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2060
Spot Scoring Time:May 4, 2023
Authors:
Opened:May 2, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2059
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2060
Spot Scoring Time:May 4, 2023
