modeling intelligent understanding forecasting definitive futures modeling calibrated forecasts forecasting contingent futures modeling accurate insights mapping the future forecasting probable understanding modeling intelligent futures computing accurate estimations computing precise wisdom delivering probable estimations exploring critical estimations assembling precise forecasts modeling calibrated understanding
Rankings Categories Find Questions

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

When will the average survival rate of all cancers exceed 75%?

Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the second leading cause of death (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation put relatively small error margins around this global figure: the lower and upper estimates extend from 8.75 to 9.1 million.

As of 2013 in the United States, the mean 5-year relative survival rate of all cancers (for both sexes) was 69.2%. As you can see from this chart by Our World in Data, the survival rate has been steadily increasing. For example, in 1977 the figure was 48.9%

When will the mean 5-year relative survival rate of all cancers for both sexes in the United States exceed 75.0%?

This resolves positive if at some future date, the 5-year survival rates will have been reported to exceed 75.0%. This question will refer to data Published by the National Cancer Institute or any other reputable source of medical statistics.

Categories: Biology, Biological Sciences – Medicine, Human Sciences – Longevity, Social issues

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site
random question question list

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.