Avg survival rate of cancers to exceed 75%

Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the second leading cause of death (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation put relatively small error margins around this global figure: the lower and upper estimates extend from 8.75 to 9.1 million.

As of 2013 in the United States, the mean 5-year relative survival rate of all cancers (for both sexes) was 69.2%. As you can see from this chart by Our World in Data, the survival rate has been steadily increasing. For example, in 1977 the figure was 48.9%

When will the mean 5-year relative survival rate of all cancers for both sexes in the United States exceed 75.0%?

This resolves positive if at some future date, the 5-year survival rates will have been reported to exceed 75.0%. This question will refer to data Published by the National Cancer Institute or any other reputable source of medical statistics.

To pinpoint a particular date, we will linearly interpolate between the first day of the year when the threshold was breached, and the first day of the prior year (see fine-print).

Clarification (2021-02-17), this question resolves as the earliest diagnosis year such that the 5-Year Relative Survival (percent for those patients exceeds 75. For example, a similar question about the 65% survival rate would have resolved as 1999, according to NIH data.

In particular, suppose the average survival rate for first exceeds 75% in year $t_k$ , at which point the survival rate was $s_k \gt 0.750$ . Then the resolution date will be given by:

$t_{k-1}+ 365\times \frac{0.75-s_{k-1}}{s_{k}-s_{k-1}}$

Categories: Biology, Biological Sciences – Medicine, Human Sciences – Longevity, Social issues

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions

Continue exploring the site

random question question list

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Metaculus

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word