# Avg survival rate of cancers to exceed 75%

### Question

Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the second leading cause of death (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation put relatively small error margins around this global figure: the lower and upper estimates extend from 8.75 to 9.1 million.

As of 2013 in the United States, the mean 5-year relative survival rate of all cancers (for both sexes) was 69.2%. As you can see from this chart by Our World in Data, the survival rate has been steadily increasing. For example, in 1977 the figure was 48.9%

When will the mean 5-year relative survival rate of all cancers for both sexes in the United States exceed 75.0%?

This resolves positive if at some future date, the 5-year survival rates will have been reported to exceed 75.0%. This question will refer to data Published by the National Cancer Institute or any other reputable source of medical statistics.

To pinpoint a particular date, we will linearly interpolate between the first day of the year when the threshold was breached, and the first day of the prior year (see fine-print).

Clarification (2021-02-17), this question resolves as the earliest diagnosis year such that the 5-Year Relative Survival (percent for those patients exceeds 75. For example, a similar question about the 65% survival rate would have resolved as 1999, according to NIH data.

In particular, suppose the average survival rate for first exceeds 75% in year $t_k$, at which point the survival rate was $s_k \gt 0.750$. Then the resolution date will be given by:

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