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12
77
forecasters
9
12 comments
77 forecasters
Elections
1 more...
condition
2024 Republican Presidential Nominee?
Resolved:
Yes
77 forecasters
if yes
if no
Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024?
0%
0%
Resolved:
No
Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024?
30%
30%
Resolved:
Annulled
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if No
30%
1 more
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14 comments
247 forecasters
Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee for President of the United States?
JD Vance
45.3%
Ron DeSantis
4.7%
Marco Rubio
17%
Other
26.6%
4 others
5 comments
50 forecasters
Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election?
Democratic Party
59.9%
Republican Party
40%
Other
0.1%
75 comments
183 forecasters
Trump in power beyond 2028?
2.5%
chance
7 comments
43 forecasters
Donald Trump primary voting factor in 2026 midterms?
99.9%
chance
5 comments
25 forecasters
US States Won by Non-Major Parties in 2028
1%
chance
2 comments
93 forecasters
Markets give >20% to a twice-elected president's renomination in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
4%
2027-2028
15%
0 comments
23 forecasters
Will Trump be impeached again?
Democratic Congress
75%
Republican Congress
9%
Split Congress
50%
11 comments
240 forecasters
Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for President of the United States?
Gavin Newsom
25.9%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
10.3%
Pete Buttigieg
7.3%
Other
44.1%
4 others